Just When I Thought I Could Not Be Shocked More….

So the closeness of the election still shocks me every time I hear about a new poll. I am struggling to understand the deep divide in our nation; I am struggling to understand the appeal of a misogynist lying criminal; I am struggling to understand our gender divide, playing out in all sorts of ways including women’s rights to choose and the size of men’s genitals.

But here was a new one for me: gambling on the election outcomes with derivative contracts. Yup. Robinhood, among other firms, is selling these contracts where a betting person stands to earn a fair amount if he/she/they predicts the election outcome correctly. Payment comes in January 2025.

So, I get sports betting. I get futures trading. I get casino betting. I get trading on gold and silver prices. And yes, the stock market is a bet.

But election betting rubs me the wrong way. This election is about money to be sure. But it is about way more than that. And betting folks generally are agnostic about merit; they care about winning the bet, regardless of what the bet is about. And the election isn’t a game; that’s for sure.

Here’s an added question I have. Are we sure there will be a known outcome that is agreed upon by Inauguration day? Might there be extended litigation and election deniers, both in plentiful numbers? What then?

Actually, the “what then” question goes well beyond betting and derivatives contracts. What if the presidential election outcome is challenged in so many locations that the results are unknown for weeks or months? What if there is found to be election fraud on a large scale? Think about the ballot boxes that were set on fire recently.

In terms of our individual and collective psyches, dealing with uncertainty evokes fear, anxiety and unrest. Who would take a bet on whether we will actually know the election results on Nov. 5th? 6th? 7th? Now, that’s a bet even Robinhood isn’t offering. Think about that. That’s telling in all the wrong ways.